Monitoring and assessment of land use/land cover changes in Kashkan basin using futures studies approach in managing ecosystem services

Land use/cover change is one of the main factors in environmental changes. The changes directly affect the value of ecosystem services. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effect of land use/land cover change in the Kashkan area on its ecosystem services. This research was carried out in three stages, including the analysis of land cover changes, prediction of changes, and carbon storage and sequestration. Landsat satellite images of TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors were used to prepare land cover maps in three periods of 1370, 1385, and 1400. In the TerrSet software environment, LCM modeler was used to predict land cover change in 1430 and ESM modeler was used for carbon storage and sequestration. Carbon storage data were extracted from IPCC emissions. Validity was evaluated using an error matrix. The results show that forest ecosystems have had the most land cover changes and the most hot spots of carbon loss are in forests. In 1370, about 44.35% of the area, equivalent to 4113.8 square kilometers, was made up of forest ecosystems, while in 1400, it decreased to 26%, equivalent to 2411.7 square kilometers. According to the future study scenario in 1430, about 1205.8 square kilometers of the area will be forest ecosystems, and between 1400 and 1430, about 158,000 mg of carbon will be released. The results can be used by environmental planners and managers to improve and protect the natural covers, especially forests, to protect ecosystem services and their continuity.